Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 19.401079 22.102044 25.008215 28.363437 32.125948 36.210591 40.976275
2025-01-19 14.444315 17.906062 21.918923 26.898030 32.892804 39.859408 48.549383
2025-01-26 12.728374 16.644033 21.400353 27.572093 35.334384 44.736221 56.945404
2025-02-02 11.424857 15.665008 21.032852 28.277096 37.741244 49.621736 65.591863
2025-02-09 10.095220 14.438656 20.142420 28.110811 38.872759 52.808612 72.108843
2025-02-16 8.929017 13.280727 19.192108 27.717046 39.585285 55.393128 77.883694
2025-02-23 8.126920 12.527547 18.692224 27.841480 40.931143 58.811135 84.867440
2025-03-02 7.500722 11.954008 18.373405 28.157032 42.509901 62.573220 92.457645
2025-03-09 6.889954 11.337082 17.925180 28.222707 43.692573 65.792918 99.394331
2025-03-16 6.267728 10.639331 17.289713 27.941530 44.313660 68.195821 105.225276
2025-03-23 5.845602 10.214490 17.026433 28.185957 45.702990 71.748169 112.861031
2025-03-30 5.624662 10.092721 17.217724 29.132119 48.193857 77.028942 123.285263
2025-04-06 5.149768 9.515985 16.653515 28.861137 48.803757 79.544503 129.729897
2025-04-13 4.493422 8.569544 15.412442 27.401321 47.425707 78.913675 131.278717
2025-04-20 4.296076 8.409110 15.466453 28.076949 49.523555 83.797901 141.656601
2025-04-27 4.121803 8.273502 15.548817 28.797140 51.721651 88.927959 152.637850
2025-05-04 3.819367 7.872973 15.135831 28.626930 52.398009 91.604805 159.743413
2025-05-11 3.510624 7.432075 14.615854 28.226923 52.644350 93.564394 165.729324
2025-05-18 3.304051 7.170463 14.400828 28.353325 53.801330 97.077767 174.429257
2025-05-25 3.139931 6.978279 14.298903 28.674221 55.309193 101.236937 184.374666
2025-06-01 2.956132 6.729568 14.070635 28.740984 56.354265 104.633217 193.138001
2025-06-08 2.745102 6.405152 13.671702 28.455089 56.730520 106.866572 199.957807
2025-06-15 2.611242 6.232441 13.556932 28.703620 58.099816 110.892653 210.059065